A couple more weeks have gone by since my last football update and the stories have gotten even more interesting.

NFL

The Undefeated: New England, Kansas City, and San Francisco

New England has weathered the AB storm and injuries. Their secondary is really good this year. They still have a ton of weapons even though Brady and Edleman seem a bit banged up. Their schedule softens up a little the next few weeks so this will likely allow them to heal. They took care of an upstart Bills team and seem to be the same ole juggernaut.

Kansas City spent the first 3 weeks almost untouched. It wasn’t until last week against the Lions did they get challenged a bit. Kansas City took a page from New England and won ugly. Mahomes actually had to work but they pulled it off.  They play the Colts and the Texans the next couple of weeks which will be interesting. The Colts and the Texans both want to turn the corner into playoff contention so will be gunning for the Chiefs. Can they take care of the ball and take care of business?

The 49ers have quietly started the season 3-0 by edging out Tampa Bay, blowing out the Bengals, and holding on against the Steelers. The defense is really good this year. The defensive front has created much more pressure which has allowed the secondary to make more plays. The offense has more weapons and Jimmy seems to have settled his pre-season jitters. Breida is going to be a household name by the end of the year. One of the problems that they had last year was ball control and it reared its head against the Steelers in a blooper reel of turnovers. Luckily the defense was strong enough to not allow the turnovers to create many points. If the Niners offense can take care of the ball, they should be able to make a playoff run.

 

The Strong: Dallas, New Orleans, and the LA Rams

The Dallas Cowboys rolled through their first 3 games without a problem. Dak had a ridiculous QBR and was hardly ever pressured. The defense looked dominate. The knock? They hadn’t played anyone as their first 3 opponents are a combined 2-10 at the moment. They came into the Sunday night game against the Saints very confident as the Saints are Drew Brees-less and surely would not be able to keep up! Ezekiel Elliott basically had nothing on the ground, turnovers and penalties killed drives, and Dak looked frazzled at times. The Cowboys will have to regroup and try their luck against a feisty Packers team before getting a reprieve against the Jets.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azSfUYgUctY

The Saints are trying their best to hold the fort until Drew Brees can come back. It still might be a few more weeks of Terry Bridgewater. Terry is one of my favorite stories. By all means he shouldn’t be even playing right now considering what he endured. It is awesome to see him running around, getting hit, and getting right back up. What the Saints fans have to realize though is that Drew Brees has ran this offense so long, that he is a coach on the field. They will have to simplify the offense for Bridgewater and they may have to try to win ugly. At the end of the day, a win is a win, and if you can keep the boat upright, your run is still in sight when Brees returns. The middle of the d line has improved a bunch which will help.

The LA Rams are battling the feared Super Bowl hangover. People swear it doesn’t exist, but it does. It’s human nature. You worked so hard to get to the mountain top only to come up short, and now you have to go back to the bottom. People tend to want to create short cuts for themselves back to the top and don’t understand that you can’t really do that. I do think that has played a little part in the Rams season so far but the main issue has been the defensive line is not as dominate and Goff is not consistent. I’ve never thought Goff was the 2nd coming but he is solid enough to get the ball to the playmakers he has. That is when he is at his best, when he is distributing the ball. When he tries to do it himself, he struggles. They also really need to get Gurley back in the groove. A strong Gurley takes the pressure off of Goff.

The Fit But Missing Something: Green Bay, Chicago, Lions, Seahawks

The Green Bay Packers are a bit different this year. They are historically known for their offensive fire power with Aaron Rodgers. This year they are winning mostly because of their defense. It has improved greatly and is now ranked in the top 10 in defense. They have installed a new offensive system which always takes a minute to take, however, they seem to be inconsistent on this side of the ball and are currently ranked 20th with 337 yard a game. They will explode for points quickly and just as quickly go quiet. If they want to make a run, they need to get this resolved.

The Bears have a similar problem but it looks more dire. The Bears defense is scary good and probably will be a for a while. Their problem is that Tribusky has taken steps back this year and the offense is not clicking. To make matters worse, Tribusky went out this weekend with an injury and Chase Daniels will now be leading the helm. This could go one of two ways. Maybe Chase Daniels will surprise us and infuse a spark in the offense. Or maybe but more likely, the offense will get even more conservative. Either way, they will need be able to score points. They are 29th in the league with 16 points a game.

The Lions are interesting because they have a history of teasing their fan base and the national media pretty much once every other year. They have a history of starting off hot and just once you buy in, they fall apart. They took the Chiefs to the wire but also tied the lowly Cardinals. Which version of this team will play the rest of the season? If they play like they did against the Chiefs, they can make a run, but they could easily be fools gold again.

The Seahawks have gotten back to being a running team the last year or so which has helped them tremendously. Chris Carson has finally developed into the guy they were hoping for, however he has had some fumbling issues at key times that has the verdict on him still out. Russell is still doing his thing but who is his number 1 guy? In the past it’s been Baldwin but they seem to be still looking for the replacement. Lockett has stepped up but can he be the guy? Metcalf seems like a promising number 2 guy if they can develop his route running better. How much of Russells 12 sacks is the o line and how much is it the receivers not getting open? Bobby Wagner is still and underrated stud. Clowney  has helped a little on the edge. However, the secondary has had issues and has allowed some points. They will need to find the right pieces and scheme to make a run.

The Bad, Ugly, and Terrible: Miami, Cincinnati, Denver, and Washington

The Miami Dolphins have been accused of tanking early into the season. I think that it’s silly to think that grown athletes who have pride in what they do would try to lose on purpose. However, do I think they have a clear talent gap? Yes. Who is to blame? Frankly, I think it’s a combination of the front office and the city. Miami has historically been a tough sell for their sports teams, even if they are good. What happened, is that now the Dolphins are owned by various celebrities in order to try to connect better with the celebrity draw that Miami has, but the product on the field has suffered. They really need to clean house and start over, maybe with a number 1 pick next draft.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bASX3T7IQ4E

The Bengals are simply the Bengals. Their offense has been sporadic at best and their defense gives up huge yards up the middle which is the heard of a defense. I think they are struggling to find their identity. John Ross is a great young talent at receiver but their isn’t much else there. They had a chance to get out of the basement against the Steelers but instead the Steelers found confidence against their defense which seemed confused half the game. They are 30th in the league in offensive points per game and in the bottom 5 in almost every defensive category.

The Broncos have taken a slow start if I ever saw one. They were hoping the addition of Flacco would turn them into a contender. It has improved a part of their offense as they really didn’t have much else in way of a quarterback before him, but he right now is a game manager QB that needs talent around him. Phillip Lindsey and Royce Freeman are a great 1-2 punch in the backfield. They need more help at receiver and to execute better in the redzone. All of their games so far have been competitive but ugly. They will need to learn how to win in that environment.

The Redskins are a hot mess. Keenum has taken about 5 steps back. The offense is unimaginative.  The defense is porous. Gruden seems to be on the hot seat but I think the problems go higher up. They need to regroup and figure out which direction they want to go and who they actually want to be.

NCAA

The Contenders: Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Ohio State

Alabama has looked pretty much like Alabama. They have quietly taken care of business and have not yet been challenged. Last week they cruised by Ole Miss. This week they play on the road at a feisty Texas A&M team. This might be a tune up for their games against LSU and Auburn later.

Clemson on the other hand has looked more shaky of the 2 powerhouses. Firstly, their schedule this year is really weak. Secondly, they haven’t beaten those weak opponents like you would expect them to except for their win against an overrated Syracuse. However, that pales in comparison to this last weeks escape job against a hungry North Carolina team. For most of the game, it looked like they were evenly matched. The defensive front from Clemson is no longer intimidating and North Carolina moved the ball at will at times on them. The UNC defense did a great job making Lawrence uncomfortable.

It came down to Mack Brown’s aggressiveness backfiring. UNC went for it on 4th and short at midfield halfway through the 4th quarter while tied 14-14. They didn’t get it and this sparked Lawrence to lead Clemson to take the lead. Then UNC drove the length of the field to get into the endzone to pull within 21-20. Then they decided to go for 2. While I understand the thought, I think the UNC defense had played so well that I would have rather kicked the PAT and made Clemson move the ball. Or maybe you go for 2 if you had more than zero time outs left to stop the clock if you don’t get it. Or if you do go for 2, maybe having a better play call than a simple option would help. Or maybe the QB making the right read on the option play would also help. He pulled it when he should have given it and got strung out. Either way, UNC out played Clemson. Will this bite them later with the committee? They will need to get their swagger going again.

Georgia’s best win so far is over Norte Dame in a competitive game. They keep quietly doing their thing as they face struggling Tennessee and South Carolina the next couple of weeks. They still have Florida, Auburn, and Texas A&M on their schedule to ramp up their resume. They so far have the best win of the top 4 teams however.

Ohio State destroyed Nebraska. I struggle with this a bit because the national media tried to make this game bigger than what it really was. They wanted Nebraska to be a test for Ohio State and wanted them to be an up and coming team trying to contend again. They were wrong. Nebraska is no where near close. They came out scared and like the stage was too big for them. 3 picks in the first quarter and the team basically packed in the tents. Is Ohio State good? Yes. But I still don’t think they have been actually tested yet. Their first 5 games have been against: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami of Ohio, and an overrated Nebraska team. The meat of their schedule has not even started yet. They will play an inconsistent Michigan State team next with more to prove in my eyes.

On the Outside: LSU, Oklahoma, Auburn, Wisconsin

LSU has probably the 2nd most impressive win of the season so far in their battle with Texas. Their new aggressive identity has really helped them offensively. They play Florida in a couple of weeks and still have the following left on their schedule after that: Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M, and if they win enough, a conference championship game. If they win out, they are in of course. If they lose 1, I think they are still in great shape with the strength of their schedule. They will earn their way there.

Oklahoma has also looked strong. Jalen Hurts’ story is the feel good story of the year. However, just like Ohio State, they haven’t quite been tested yet. They have beaten the following: Houston, South Dakota, UCLA, Texas Tech. Not exactly a gauntlet. They play Kansas next so expect more of the same. The Texas game a week after is HUGE. That is their opportunity to make a statement in a rivalry game. They need that signature win for the committee.

Auburn’s defensive front is really impressive but the offense is sometimes inconsistent against better competition. Beating Oregon in week 1 really put them in the conversation. Last weeks win against Miss State helped their offense get in a better rhythm. Like LSU they control their destiny in that if they win out they definitely deserve a playoff spot but it will be a tall order. They still have: Florida, LSU, Georgia, AND Alabama, before even sniffing a conference title game. Auburn could end up with 2 or 3 losses and still create havoc in a bowl game. They will need more from Bo Nix to keep up with Alabama and Georgia.

Wisconsin struggled to put away Northwestern one week after destroying Michigan. Their defense is for real but their offense goes as far as their running game. Northwestern kept the running game in check. Jonathan Taylor is the key to Wisconsin. If he runs well all else falls into place. If he struggles, the offense gets stagnant and has to rely on the defense to dig them out. What will happen as teams try to stack the box more on Taylor? This will be the key to Wisconsin’s run. They essentially have a bye week against Kent and then Michigan State.

The One Loss Dark Horses: Norte Dame, Texas, Oregon, Washington

Norte Dame has played 2 really competitive games the last couple of weeks. Against Georgia it didn’t result in a win but against Virginia it did. They could be the fly in the power 5 ointment in the playoff seeding if they can win out. They still have USC and Michigan on their docket.

Texas lost a gritty match up with LSU earlier in the year but still can control their own destiny. First up is a road match up at West Virginia which has a trap game written all over it because the following week is the game of the year against Oklahoma. The mark of a good college coach is to get these kids, and they are kids, to focus each week and not get ahead of themselves. West Virginia will be rocking. If Texas comes out flat and loses, the Oklahoma game won’t matter as much playoff wise. On the flip side, if they are able to avoid that trap can beat Oklahoma, they would be smack right in the middle of the race again.

Oregon started the season with a heartbreaking loss to Auburn week 1. They outplayed Auburn for about 3 quarters before conservative play calling really bit them. There were positives for Oregon out of the matchup however. Firstly, the last 15 years Oregon has been knocking its head against the glass and trying to break through but it learned that it just didn’t have the size up front to compete against the bigger SEC teams in the trenches. So what did it do? It recruited more size. Auburn did not push Oregon around up front. Oregon has seemed to have closed that gap. Additionally, its the defense that has led the way this year for Oregon and they have not allowed a TD in the last 3 games. They have played Nevada, Montana, which were no contests.

Then they Out Stanford’ed Stanford by winning with defense, physicality, and TE play. That was huge confidence boost considering the disaster they had against Stanford last year. Oregon plays Cal and Colorado next. They get some of their top receivers back into the line up which have been out due to injury which helps. This team however, will go as far as the offensive play calling will take them. They need to learn to finish those big games to turn that corner. If they win out, they still have a shot to get back in the race, but they will have to be patient and focus each week.

Washington is in a similar spot to Oregon save for the fact that Oregon’s loss to Auburn looked more pretty than Washington’s loss to Cal. The Pac 12 north should be decided in a couple of weeks when the 2 rivals face off. Eason seems to be struggling against Pac 12 talent. He has talent around him to get the job done but really, Washington will go as far as he takes them.

TEAM DISAPPOINTED: Michigan, Washington State, UCF

Michigan came into this season with high hopes. Well they come into every season with high hopes. I’m a Jim Harbaugh person. I like his swagger. I think the problem for him now is 2 fold. He has not recruited well at QB since joining Michigan and his style of offense is falling behind the trends. He always seems to have a good defense but this year even they have fallen off a bit. He will either need to make adjustments or Michigan will have to decide how long his leash is.

Washington State also came into the season on a high. They had a great year last year with the legend of the Mustache. Leach seemed to have all the answers with his Air Raid Offense. The defense last year was scrappy. This year they seem a bit indifferent and like they are struggling with their identity. They lost some key people when it comes to leadership and when you are talking about the school in a small random town like Pullman, where the weather is as finicky Leach’s words, leadership is everything. Their secondary is awful this year and they don’t seem connected as a team.

UCF had a chance to be the X factor in the 4 team playoff debate. They were destroying whoever was on their schedule until a close loss at Pitt all but ruined that dream. To make matters worse, their previous signature win against Stanford, now looks not as impressive as Stanford has taken a nose dive. UCF is still a great team with talent and speed. They are only disappointing in that if they won out, it would be a bigger argument for an 8 team playoff considering it would be likely they would have still been left out.